Dec 2

Dec 2 A Safer Outer Space through Open Source

Artist’s rendition of the 1975 Apollo-Soyuz Test Project during docking (Courtesy of NASA)

“In real open source, you have the right to control your own destiny”

— Linus Torvalds

**** MAJOR UPDATE ON 8/1/2022: I have rewritten and incorporated the below into a law review paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4175659. Please review the material there as it has the most current information. Thank you! ****

As more and more commercial enterprises cast their gaze upon the stars, Outer Space is set to become the next multi-trillion dollar market. It will be an industry brimming with a myriad of varied opportunities: from space tourism to supply logistics, from satellite operators to launch providers, from space mining to habitation constructions, the list goes on. But, Earth’s orbits are filling up with more objects than ever before and space, itself, is increasingly becoming an issue. As the explosion of activities in this sector continues, accidents are more likely to occur. While Outer Space will always captivate our imagination, it has been and always will be a challenging environment that is not naturally designed for the human condition.

Hence, with so many entities shooting for the stars, having a set of universal standards will be critical for safety and coordination among all space-faring objects, manned and unmanned. Here, I believe that building certain foundational space technologies on open standards is the key to achieve this goal. The resulting homogeny can help to ensure that we provide a safer sandbox for space-faring enterprises to continue their heterogenous cosmic quests. In light of this, for this post, I will explain and argue why a set of open standards should be publicized and implemented for three fundamental Outer Space technology areas: (1) space debris tracking, (2) docking mechanisms, and (3) life-support systems.

Open Sourcing Space Debris Analysis

With several entities competing to launch their own internet constellations and the rise of CubeSats, the Near Earth Orbit is becoming blanketed with satellites. In fact, projections have shown that in the next five years, we will have launched more objects into Outer Space than we have in the last sixty years since Sputnik 1’s fateful launch. As these payloads reach end-of-life, the sheer number of defunct objects residing in our critical pathway to Outer Space will increase exponentially. Hence, space debris removal is turning into an immediate issue that must be urgently addressed. While cleaning up space junk could be a lucrative business opportunity, innovation in this field will depend on having a sophisticated space object tracking and warning system at its backbone.

While several organizations—such as LeoLabs and NorthStar Earth & Space and governmental agencies—such as Space Force’s 18th Space Control Squadron, NASA, ESA’s Space Surveillance and Tracking are currently tracking space-based objects and projecting potential collisions, nobody has a complete picture of the Near Space above. For instance, LeoLabs is currently tracking about 14,000 objects in Low Earth Orbit and the United States government is keeping a tab on about 25,000 objects. However, this is but a drop in the bucket compared to the total number of objects circling Earth: projections in early 2020 indicates 34,000 objects larger than ten centimeters, 900,000 between ten centimeters to one centimeter, and 128 million between one millimeter to one centimeter. Traveling as fast as 17,500 miles per hour, even a tiny piece of debris can wreak havoc on an unsuspecting object and potentially triggering the Kessler syndrome.

In order to accelerate growth in the space debris removal field, I believe we should create an open database that will aid in tracking objects in Outer Space. While a payload’s proprietary information should still be kept secret, observable information such as an object’s size, speed, and orientation should be collected in redundant repositories that are publicly available. Having these characteristics encoded in a standardized open data format will ensure that everyone can contribute information in a streamlined fashion. The open format can also incentivize the public to access the data and conduct custom analysis on specific subsets of Outer Space objects. This might improve our current collision avoidance system with extra sets of eyes examining objects that might not be on the radar—no pun intended—of companies and agencies currently operating in the field.

But, will open standards bankrupt existing companies in the field? Worry not. This database will not cannibalize existing commercial enterprises and can actually benefit them as well. Having a standardized data format will save these entities from expending energy in trying to collect and streamline data from potentially disjointed and incompatible sources. Then, they can focus their energy on optimizing their algorithms and upgrading their solutions to provide better and more accurate collision analysis for their customers. The open database can also serve as a collaborative foundation for partnership among different companies; with each focusing and optimizing its solution on a specific subset of space-based objects, these enterprises can jointly market a more comprehensive solution for their customers. Hence, developing a database on open standards can mature this field, helping to increase the number of objects tracked and improving the existing collision avoidance ecosystem.

Open Sourcing Docking Technologies

Relatedly, one of the biggest issues in the field of space debris clean-up is technology dissonance. Because of export control laws and market forces, companies are either unable to or unwilling to share their proprietary technology. The lack of knowledge makes it risky for enterprises to “dispose” another entity’s defunct objects drifting in Outer Space; without being able to predict how the object might react to specific clean-up methods, a space debris removal crew could be held liable for consequential damages resulting from such efforts via the Space Liability Convention of 1972.

But, if we were to open source docking technology and ensure that all objects—manned and unmanned—have the same types of docking processes, this would mitigate the possibility of consequential damages. This will also incentivize the growth of enterprises focusing on the removal of space debris. Conforming to standardized docking procedures, these companies will be able to design payloads that can either safely connect to or capture defunct or unresponsive objects floating in Outer Space. These devices can then either return the derelicts back to Earth for savage operations or enabling them to burn up in Earth’s atmosphere via assisted maneuvers to a decaying orbit.

Furthermore, as the number of manned vessels operating in Outer Space increases, the chances of encountering a vehicle in distress will also increase. If all crewed objects operate with the same types of docking procedures, we can ensure that there are plenty of spacecrafts that will be available to render assistance in the event of an emergency. Arriving at the location of a vessel in distress, the Good Samaritan crew would not have to waste time figuring out how to link up with the crew in distress. Instead, rescuers can focus directly on how to extract the victims in a safe manner. Hence by making ideal docking procedures and technologies widely available on open standards, it will also increase the chances of survival in an Outer Space emergency. This further helps to effectuate the goals of the Rescue Agreement of 1968.

Open Sourcing Life Support Systems

Speaking of increasing survival rates, having a detailed understanding of a spacecraft’s life-support systems is critical to successfully overcoming an emergency. For all of its wonder, Outer Space is inherently dangerous and not naturally suitable for human life. In the event that a vessel’s life-support systems is damaged, having a broad group of people who understand these systems and can fix the issue could be the difference between life and death. Therefore, I believe it is crucial that a spacecraft’s life-support systems have as many open source components as possible.

As our Outer Space technologies are still in the nascent stage, accidents and malfunctions are likely to occur. But, that does not mean that these emergencies should result in fatalities. By assembling life-support systems with as many open source components as possible, a crew in distress can avail themselves to the brain trust of humanity: engineers and scientists around the world will be able to diagnose the symptoms and come up with a solution. Because spacecrafts have limited redundancies and a lack of extraneous parts—the tyranny of the rocket equation—simple and fast solutions are necessary. In these circumstances, you want as many people trying to come up with the fix as possible.

As past accidents in Outer Space have shown, this is not that farfetched from reality. The crew of Apollo 13 was saved by the ingenuity of NASA engineers in making a carbon dioxide scrubber using everyday materials like cue cards, towels, and plastic bags. With humanity planning manned flights to Mars in the near future, two-way communications will take longer than it does in Near Earth Orbit. If an emergency were to arise, crowdsourcing solutions through people already having a foundational understanding of the spacecraft’s life-support systems is of paramount importance.

A New Outer Space Market through Open Standards

While companies with proprietary technologies in these fields might push back against open source efforts, these initiatives need not be their death knell. Innovation can exist alongside and on top of open-oriented technology and could even help to drive more market opportunities. Here, we can take a page from how the software industry has been revitalized by the rise of open source.

Today, the Software-as-a-Service (“SaaS”) sector is filled with successful and profitable companies whose businesses are built around open source components. Enterprises such as Mongo and Elastic have shown the industry that it is possible to open source their technologies for general public’s use without cannibalizing their sales operations. By offering enterprise services on top of generally available software, these entities can still generate tremendous amount of revenue. Likewise, these same types of opportunities can be shifted into Outer Space for companies involved in debris tracking, life support systems, or docking technologies. While making the foundational knowledge freely available for examination and study by the public, these enterprises could still charge a premium for consulting or support services related to the operations of these technologies.

Furthermore, by making certain of its products and services freely available, a company can encourage the use and incorporation of such offerings into a customer’s ecosystem. After being able to tinker around with the product or service for free, a customer’s engineers might believe in the importance of such offerings and persuade their decisionmakers to procure the services as a necessity. Similar to how open source software licenses operate, special provisions can also be drafted such that an open use of an enterprise’s products or services are limited to specific scenarios and circumstances.

Developing critical technologies on open standards can also be a rising tide that lifts all boats. Consolidating underlying technologies could lower the cost of entry for potential customers. This will enable the Outer Space industry to grow as a whole. For instance, having unified docking mechanisms will mean space transportation companies do not have to custom configure their vehicles for missions that involve docking with other objects. Instead, these enterprises can spend their resources on advancing the field through research into concepts such as how to increase mass load while decreasing cost or how to create a more comfortable ride up for space tourists. By focusing on these differentiators on top of fundamental technologies, the Outer Space market will become more mature and open to a wider audience, in turn helping to foster greater growth.

The Need of Open Standards for Outer Space

Although competitive forces might discourage enterprises from participating, open standards related to debris tracking, docking mechanisms, and life-support systems will ensure that activities in Outer Space will become safer for all. In addition, much like how open source has transformed the software industry, I believe having certain fundamental technologies built on open standards can grow and develop the Outer Space industry. While there are encouraging signs that such efforts are already underway, such as the Space Situational Awareness (SSA) project, we need to continue to incentivize community participation on a grander scale. Through these efforts, not only will we make the Outer Space industry more mature, we will also be able to better harness the panoply of human knowledge to develop the tools needed to advance our understanding of the universe. And ultimately, through this ad astra effort, we will inevitably make humanity an interstellar species.