May 26

May 26 Made in America: The Maiden Flight of NASA's Commercial Crew

SpaceX’s Crew Dragon experiencing its final check: a brief static fire test (Courtesy of NASA)

“I got my hands up; they’re playin’ my song; you know I’m gonna be okay; yeah, it’s a party in the USA”

— Party in the U.S.A., Miley Cyrus

****I had live-blogged this post with updates from the actual launch. To skip these updates and go straight to the main post: click here ****

***New UPDATE @ 8/2, 11:48:08 PT:*** the crew dragon capsule has splashed down for the first time! This marks the successful completion of DM-2. Round trip done and we got ourselves a new fully working manned space launch vehicle!!!

***FINAL UPDATE @ 5/30, 13:00 PT:*** SUPER EXCITED!!! On May 30, 2020 @ 12:22:45 PT, America has officially regained its domestic crewed launch capabilities! After a gap of almost 9 years, this is also a historic moment for SpaceX as it becomes (1) the first commercial entity with manned capabilities to Outer Space and (2) the first crewed launch provider for a national space agency. JOB WELL DONE!!!!

***UPDATE @ 5/30, 12:58 PT: *** Now the Crew Dragon is chasing down the International Space Station (“ISS”)! At around 07:29 PT, tomorrow, Sunday May 31, 2020, it should dock to the ISS via automated procedures.

***UPDATE @ 5/30, 12:35 PT: *** T+12 minutes: DRAGON DEPLOYMENT IS A SUCCESS! ***

***UPDATE @ 5/30, 12:32 PT: *** T+9 mins: First stage of Falcon 9 has LANDED SAFELY on SpaceX’s droneship, OF COURSE I STILL LOVE YOU ***

***UPDATE @ 5/30, 12:31 PT: *** WE HAVE STAGE TWO SHUT-OFF, DRAGON IS NOW IN SPACE!!! ***

***UPDATE @ 5/30, 12:25 PT: *** We have MECO and Separation! AND IGNITION ON MERLIN!***

***UPDATE @ 5/30, 12:22 PT: *** LIFT-OFF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!***

***UPDATE @ 5/30, 12:21 PT: *** T-45 seconds: Launch Director has given GO FOR LAUNCH!!***

***UPDATE @ 5/30, 12:19 PT: *** T-3 MINUTES; Dragon has switched to internal power! ***

***UPDATE @ 5/30, 12:16 PT: *** Stage two engines: Merlin Engines Chill down call… getting close now! ***

***UPDATE @ 5/30, 12:13 PT: *** We are now less than 10 minutes from a HISTORIC LAUNCH! ***

***UPDATE @ 5/30, 11:48 PT: *** Fueling has begun! ***

***UPDATE @ 5/30, 11:42 PT: *** The launch escape system has been armed ***

***UPDATE @ 5/30, 11:38 PT: *** Weather Update: it’s GO for both launch and recovery! The Crew Access Arm is now being retracted ***

***UPDATE @ 5/30, 11:33 PT: Weather is expected to clear before 12:00 PT, but NASA is monitoring lightning at the staging areas for one of the launch abort locations. This is much better than Wednesday’s weather conditions but still up in the air (no pun intended). ***

***UPDATE @ 5/30, 10:49 PT: The weather currently is no-go for launch but is expected to clear by 11:30 PT. Technical readiness check for fueling will begin at T-60 minutes ***

***UPDATE @ 5/30, 10:47 PT: The close out crew is clearing out. The weather report at T-45 minutes will be the preliminary go/no-go call for fueling. ***

***UPDATE @ 5/30, 10:18 PT: Final weather report is expected at T-45 minutes, however, right now, it’s raining at the pad -__- ***

***UPDATE @ 5/30, 10:09 PT: The hatch door has closed! Getting real again!! ***

***UPDATE @ 5/30, 9:53 PT: The seats have rotated into launch position! ***

***UPDATE @ 5/30, 9:41 PT: You will notice that there is a tiny dragon toy (Crew Dragon after all) sitting in the seat next to Dr. Bob (by his right-side), it will be going up as well :)!***

***UPDATE @ 5/30, 9:37 PT: DM-2 crew is Entering the Dragon again (with the help of the close out crew… who are really dressed up like ninjas)!***

***UPDATE @ 5/30, 9:29 PT: Chunky and Dr. Bob (astronauts by their nicknames) are currently making their final pre-launch phone calls to their families.***

***UPDATE @ 5/30, 9:28 PT: Fun fact: the astronauts have to take the elevator and some stairs up to the Crew Access Arm. Why not just the elevator ride all the way up? Well, the elevator was built back in the Space Shuttle era, but the Falcon 9 is a bit longer, and NASA/SpaceX couldn’t extend the elevator, so stairs were added/needed!***

***UPDATE @ 5/30, 9:26 PT: NASA astronauts and the close out crew have arrived at pad LC-39A, took a picture in front of their home for the next day (if we have a launch today) and are taking the elevator up to the Crew Access Arm.***

***UPDATE @ 5/30, 9:14 PT: ***And here we go again: NASA astronauts (Douglas Hurley and Robert Behnken) are currently on route to the pad again! Launch is expected for 12:22 PT today. Here’s to hoping weather keeps on!***

***FINAL UPDATE for 5/27, 13:28 PT: ***The next launch window is at 12:22 PT on May 30, 2020. See you all Saturday!***

***UPDATE @ 5/27, 13:19 PT: ***At T-15 minutes, 15 seconds, the launch sequence had been terminated. This was due to a violation of the lightning rules. While I am hugely disappointed, this is the right call. The weather definitely contributed to the Challenger Disaster.***

***UPDATE @ 5/27, 13:16 PT: ***THEY HAVE SCRUBBED THE LAUNCH TODAY ***

***UPDATE @ 5/27, 13:15 PT: ***Unfortunately, the weather report is not looking good at this point….***

***UPDATE @ 5/27, 13:10 PT: ***Final weather check is going to be announced in the next 4 minutes…. there was a weather pattern that was not looking good :(***

***UPDATE @ 5/27, 12:58 PT: Propellant (see my piece on rocket engines) is starting to be loaded in the Falcon 9***

***UPDATE @ 5/27, 12:51 PT: Arming the launch escape mechanism! First time that this has happened with astronauts aboard since the Apollo-Soyuz test project in 1975, goosebumps!***

***UPDATE @ 5/27, 12:49 PT: The Crew Access Arm is currently being retracted! ***

***UPDATE @ 5/27, 12:48 PT: Launch Director: We are a PREDICTIVE GO for loading the propellant load! This is a critical gate! ***

***UPDATE @ 5/27, 12:36 PT: At T-45 minutes, we should get the final weather report, so about 12:49 PT.***

***UPDATE @ 5/27, 12:25 PT: The close out crew has left the pad; waiting for final weather check. Due to the very limited window, if it does not launch at 13:33:35 PT, it will be scrubbed for today.***

***UPDATE @ 5/27, 11:14 PT: The Crew Dragon’s seats are now rotated into the launch position and the close out crew is performing suit leakage test. ***

***UPDATE @ 5/27, 10:52 PT: Behnken and Hurley have entered the dragon and are being strapped in by the close out crew… here’s hoping the weather cooperates! ***

***UPDATE @ 5/27, 10:47 PT: NASA crew is signing the NASA logo on the wall of the Crew Access Arm, the first two of many signatures I hope! ***

***UPDATE @ 5/27, 10:44 PT: Arriving at the Crew Access Arm and standing next to the NASA classic worm, NASA astronauts are currently making final pre-launch phone calls to their respective families ***

***UPDATE @ 5/27, 10:35 PT: NASA astronauts and the close out crew have arrived at pad LC-39A—symbolically, the launch site of Space Shuttle missions in the past***

***UPDATE @ 5/27, 10:24 PT: NASA astronauts (Douglas Hurley and Robert Behnken) are currently on route to the pad in a Tesla X.***

*** TL;DR: If Crew Dragon is successful tomorrow (May 27, 2020), America will regain its domestic manned launch capabilities. Stay tuned for live updates during tomorrow’s launch ***

At approximately 1:30pm PT tomorrow, May 27, 2020, Crew Dragon is expected to make its first crewed launch. If this historic mission goes according to plan, America will finally regain its ability for manned launches domestically, closing a sore spot for NASA since the retirement of the Space Shuttle. For both NASA and SpaceX, much is on the line. With a successful launch, NASA’s Commercial Crew Program would be justified, warts and all. And while SpaceX is no stranger to historic achievements, it would become (1) the first commercial entity with manned capabilities to Outer Space (with apologies to Virgin Galactic—at least for now, the Karman Line is still the gold standard) and (2) the first crewed launch provider for a national space agency.

In anticipation of this significant milestone, this post will provide context for tomorrow’s Crew Dragon launch. We will proceed, like a symphony, in four movements: (a) beginning with the prologue that explores the Space Shuttle’s retirement, (b) transitioning to the dialogue that explains the Soyuz as NASA’s stop-gap solution, (c) moving to the apologue focusing on the Dragon, and (d) concluding with the epilogue on the practical significance and policy considerations on regaining domestic crewed launch capabilities.

The Prologue: Space Shuttle’s Retirement

On July 21, 2011, Space Shuttle Atlantis touched down at the Kennedy Space Center. When Atlantis came to a full stop, it marked the historic end of a three-decade program that inspired countless individuals, including yours truly. While none can deny the significance of the Space Shuttle, it was also a program that was riddled with cost overruns and punctured by two deadly accidents that ultimately led to its early retirement.

The Space Shuttle was envisioned to be a partially-reusable means of carrying on American Outer Space explorations. While the Apollo Program took us to new heights and sights unseen, it was a costly project that was unsustainable in the long run. Hence, the Space Shuttle had been developed to solve this: a low-cost reliable launch platform that would permanently paved America’s path in Outer Space. NASA originally thought that the Space Shuttle Program would cost about six billion dollars to develop and cost about $10 million per launch. The Space Shuttle was also supposed to be a frequent flier, launching up to 50 times a year from both Vandenberg Air Force Base (for polar orbits) and Kennedy Space Center (for equatorial orbits). However, reality painted a very different picture. With a total of 135 missions over 30 years, the shuttle only averaged about 4.5 flights a year. Having spent $211 billion over the program’s span, NASA’s cost per flight was about $1.5 billion. While this is cheaper than the Apollo Program, it was not by much—and it certainly was not the sustainable amount that NASA was shooting for.

The program also lost its luster after two tragedies that led to the death of 14 astronauts and destruction of two space shuttles: the Challenger and the Columbia. On January 28, 1986, disaster first struck the shuttle 73 seconds into the launch of STS-51-L, the program’s 25th mission. One of the O-ring seals in the spacecraft’s solid fuel boosters had become rigid in the cold weather, allowing an opening to form and hot gases to escape. These hot gases surrounded the main external liquid tank, eventually rupturing it and causing its liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen to mix and explode. The aerodynamic forces caused by these explosions torn apart the Challenger, killing all 7 astronauts onboard. After the Challenger disaster, the shuttle was redesigned and performed without incidents until February 1, 2003. On the return of STS-107, the program’s 113th flight, Space Shuttle Columbia disintegrated upon atmospheric reentry. The tragedy stemmed from a broken thermal tile damaged by a piece of insulation foam that had broken off during launch. At reentry, hot atmospheric gases penetrated Columbia through this hole in the thermal protection layer, destroying the shuttle and killing the 7 astronauts onboard. It was later discovered that both accidents could have been easily avoided; the issues surrounding both had been identified prior to the sequence of events triggering the disasters. But, because of management issues and bureaucratic red-tape, fixes were never implemented.

As the second fatal accident, the Columbia disaster proved to be the straw that broke the program’s back, leading to the shuttle’s retirement. In 2004, President Bush outlined a new American Space policy with the Vision for Space Exploration directive. In it, he called for the Space Shuttle Program to solely focus on the assembly and completion of the International Space Station (“ISS”). Once its work is done, the shuttle will be retired. While the Space Shuttle has had its share of crowning achievements, with these devastating tragedies and continued budget overruns, even members of NASA have admitted that the program was ultimately a mistake.

The Dialogue: Riding the Soyuz

When Endeavor—and with it the Space Shuttle Program—came to its resting stop that early July morning in 2011, America was left without a functioning domestic crew launch platform. This was the first time in USA Space program that a successor was not ready to go before the predecessor had already been marked for retirement. While the Bush and the subsequent Obama administrations looked to develop a new manned platform for missions to Outer Space, a stop-gap solution was needed. Here, NASA found its answer through its partnership with Roscosmos, the Russian Federation’s space agency.

Even before the Space Shuttle’s last mission, after the Columbia disaster, the program had been focusing solely on the ISS’s assembly. However, per Article 12 of the Intergovernmental Agreement for ISS operations and NASA’s Memorandums of Understanding with several other nations, the American space agency has the responsibility for transporting several of its international partners’ crews up to the ISS. At the time when NASA took on this obligation, the organization thought that the Space Shuttle Program would last through the ISS’s operational life. With the shuttle becoming unavailable, NASA knew it needed another way of transporting these individuals to the ISS.

NASA found its answer in the Russian Soyuz spacecraft. When the Russian Federation first signed up as an operational partner to the ISS, its space agency adapted its Soyuz spacecraft for serving the ISS, including the transportation of its cosmonauts. Hence, when the Space Shuttle had been grounded after the Columbia disaster, the Soyuz became the only means of transportation to and from the ISS until the shuttle became certified to fly again. As the Soyuz proved to be remarkably reliable, NASA was eager to expand its partnership with Roscosmos while working on a new generation of domestic crew launch vehicles.

However, before NASA could modify its existing ISS framework with the Russian Federation, it needed a waiver to bypass the restrictions that were set in place by the Iran, North Korea, Syria Nonproliferation Act of 2000 (“INKSNA”). Under section 6 of INKSNA, the United States was barred from paying the Russian Federation for activities related to the ISS unless the U.S. President determines that Russia has cooperated “in preventing proliferation to Iran.” In 2005, NASA received its waiver via the Iran Non-proliferation Amendments Act of 2005, which exempted the purchase of Soyuz flights from INKSNA through the end of 2011. However, with progress on a new domestic crew launch vehicle continued to experience delays, the waiver was extended to 2016 in September 2008—with the help of a future President, and again in 2013 to the end of 2020. Finally, late last year, the INKSNA waiver was extended—perhaps for a final time—to the end of 2025.

With the waiver in place, NASA has signed multiple amendments and extensions to its ISS Operating Framework with Russia. For its inaugural seat purchases in April 2007, NASA signed a $719 million modification for the Soyuz to launch 15 crew members; this worked out to about $48 million per seat. As the new domestic vehicle’s development—via the Commercial Crew Program (explained in the next section)—continued to encounter delay, many more extensions were signed. The next amendment in December 2008 paid for 3 seats at a total of $141 million ($47 million per seat). For the next 6 seats, NASA signed a $306 million ($51 million per seat) extension in May 2009. A $335 million amendment for 6 astronauts at $55.8 million per seat came next in April 2010. Then, a $753 million extension for 12 at $62.7 million per seat was executed in March 2011. Just a little bit over 2 years later, in April 2013, another $424 million amendment was added for 6 more seats at about $70.7 million per seat. NASA extended the contract for another 6 in August 2015 for $490 million at a per seat cost of about $81.6 million. Then in 2017, by piggybacking off of a Boeing contract, another $373.5 million contract was executed for 5 seats at a cost of $74.7 million per seat. Finally, earlier this month (May 2020), NASA has brought one more, and hopefully, the last seat from Russia at a price of about $90.3 million. So over the last decade and a half, NASA has spent over $3.6 billion for 60 seats onboard the Soyuz at an average cost of about $60.6 million (without accounting for inflation).

The Apologue: The Dragon takes Flight

Throughout the Soyuz seat purchase era, NASA has been riding a new approach in developing a launch platform that can replace the Space Shuttle. Through this Commercial Crew Program, NASA is now on the precipice of a new workhorse for manned launches to the ISS and low earth orbit: the SpaceX Crew Dragon.

The Commercial Crew Program

If SpaceX’s Crew Dragon obtains success tomorrow (May 27, 2020), it will be a sweet redemption in a long time coming for NASA. Prior to the Commercial Crew Program, NASA would manage the design and development standards for manned spacecrafts in-house, hiring a “work-for-hire” contractor for the construction process, thereby enabling NASA to own both the launch platform and its infrastructure. But as a first for the agency, the Commercial Crew Program enabled NASA to completely outsource the design, specifications, and development of crew launch platforms to private enterprises incentivized by market competition. Enabling private ownership of the spacecraft, NASA would merely select, advise, and eventually pay for seats on the successful end-product. Through this private-public partnership, NASA hopes that private sector’s innovative drive mixed with the public agency’s decades of experience would empower the design and development of “multiple systems providing safe, reliable and more routine and affordable access to Space.” Success for the Commercial Crew Program is measured by the creation of a space transportation system that can: (1) launch four astronauts and their supply to the ISS and return to the Earth at least twice a year, (2) assure such crew’s safety through escape mechanisms at launch and ascent, (3) serve as a fully-functioning lifeboat for at least 24 hours in Outer Space, and (4) dock to the ISS for at least 210 days.

The Commercial Crew Program first began in 2010 with $40 million from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act for Commercial Crew Development Round 1 (CCDev1). Under CCDev1, NASA awarded five companies with funding to start the development of a next-generation human-rated spacecraft: Blue Origin, Boeing, Paragon Space Development Corporation, Sierra Nevada Corporation, and United Launch Alliance. Then in April 2011, NASA advanced to Commercial Crew Development Round 2 (CCDev2). For CCDev2, NASA would eventually award a total of $315.5 million to four companies (Blue Origin, Boeing, Sierra Nevada Corporation, SpaceX) as well as unfunded advising agreements, Space Act Agreements, with Excalibur Almaz Inc. and United Launch Alliance. In August 2012, NASA culled the field and limited its private-public partnership down to three companies: Boeing, Sierra Nevada Corporation, and SpaceX. Under this phase 3, named Commercial Crew Integrated Capability (CCiCap), NASA awarded these private enterprises a total of about $1.17 billion to continue the development of fully integrated Space launch systems that would include comprehensive “from launch to recovery” operation procedures.

With the field narrowed to these three, the next stage of the Commercial Crew Program began in December 2012 with an award of $30 million under the Certification Products Contracts Phase 1 (CPC). In this first of two-phases, these companies were expected to develop a certification process for their spacecrafts to perform crewed missions to the ISS. Through the process, each company should generate data that can develop engineering standards as well as to analyze their vehicles’ test performances. In September 2014, NASA eliminated Sierra Nevada because of lack of progress and the Commercial Crew Program is left with the current final two, Boeing and SpaceX, for final development and demonstration via Commercial Crew Transportation Capability (CCtCap), phase 2 of CPC. Under this phase, Boeing could receive up to $4.2 billion for its Starliner crew platform while SpaceX could be awarded $2.6 billion for its Dragon crew vehicle.

As we approach the finishing line, a clear winner is emerging between the two: SpaceX. While both have been marred by delays, SpaceX is on the edge of winning the race with a successful demonstration tomorrow. Meanwhile, Boeing will have to re-perform its uncrewed test flight (scheduled for October 2020) after several anomalies had occurred in its first demo on December 20, 2019. NASA anticipates that the Starliner will not be ready for a crewed demonstration flight until 2021. Furthermore in November 2019, NASA estimated that SpaceX’s cost-per-seat is much lower than Boeing’s. While the Starliner, at $90 million, comes out at a similar per-seat cost as the latest seat that NASA brought on the Soyuz, Dragon’s per seat cost is much lower at $55 million, representing a saving of $35 million per seat.

Crew Dragon on the Clock

With Starliner still a few steps short, the Crew Dragon is ready for its last step in the certification process: a crewed demonstration flight to the ISS.

The final version of the Crew Dragon has a diameter of 4 meters (13 feet) and a height of 8.1 meter (26.7 feet) and can carry up to 6,000 kilogram (13,228 lbs) for launch. With the ability to carry up to 7 passengers to the ISS, the Crew Dragon has a capsule volume of 9.3 cubic meters (328 cubic feet) and a trunk space of 37 cubic meters (1,300 cubic feet). As a safety measure, the spacecraft carries eight SuperDraco engines that can each generate up to 71 kilonewtons (16,000 lbf) of thrust as part of the capsule’s launch escape capabilities. In the retractable nose cone that protects its ISS docking mechanisms, the Dragon also contains 16 Draco thrusters for orbital maneuvers.

Tomorrow’s final exam is the culmination of years of hard work for SpaceX. The company conducted the Crew Dragon’s first test, a pad abort test, successfully on May 6, 2015. A little more than six months later, the capsule aced a test of its thrusters by hovering for about 5 seconds on its SuperDraco engines. Then on March 2, 2019, via mission Demo-1, the Dragon accomplished its first Outer Space test flight by launching and docking to the ISS unmanned. After staying docked in Space for 6 days, the spacecraft performed a successful reentry and recovery. After this string of accomplishments, SpaceX encountered a hiccup when its spacecraft exploded during its static fire test on April 20, 2019. It was later discovered that an oxidizer caused the explosion when it had accidentally been leaked out and rammed into a titanium check valve during the pressurization process. After the analysis, SpaceX moved quickly to address the problem by replacing the valves with single-use burst discs. With the issue fixed, SpaceX conducted and passed its final unmanned test, an in-flight abort simulation of its launch escape safety systems, on January 19, 2020.

Tomorrow’s mission, Crew Dragon Demo-2 (DM-2), will be the first manned flight of this spacecraft and NASA’s first domestic crewed launch since the final Space Shuttle mission, STS-135. It will carry two American astronauts, Douglas Hurley and Robert Behnken, to the ISS. Symbolically, Douglas Hurley, spacecraft commander for DM-2, was also the pilot on STS-135. DM-2 is expected to launch around 1:30pm PT on Wednesday, May 27, 2020 from Kennedy Space Center’s LC-39A in Florida—which, by no coincidence, had been the Space Shuttle’s launchpad. The Crew Dragon will be sitting on top of SpaceX’s battle-tested workhorse: the mostly reusable Falcon 9. Once in Outer Space, the crew will test the Dragon’s various systems to ensure the spacecraft’s operational readiness and use the vehicle’s automated system to dock with the ISS approximately 24 hours after launch. DM-2’s mission duration will be TBD, but can be as long as 110 days. At the end of mission, the Crew Dragon capsule will perform its undocking and reentry procedures and be eventually picked up by SpaceX’s Go Navigator recovery ship just off of Florida’s Atlantic Coast.

The Epilogue: The Return of Domestic Crewed Launch Capabilities

Upon DM-2’s successful conclusion, the Crew Dragon, its launch platform and SpaceX’s launch process will be certified as human-rated. Finally, America will see the return of an operational domestic crew launch platform since the Space Shuttle’s retirement in 2011. With this vehicle’s availability, the development phase of the Commercial Crew Program will finally be at the beginning of its end. A fully functioning Crew Dragon will not only solve the cost issues that had dogged the Space Shuttle, but also validate NASA’s public-private partnership policies. However, the dawn of this new era of domestic crewed launches can also lead to new questions for America’s Space policy.

Fixing Space Shuttle’s Shortfalls

The successful certification of SpaceX’s manned launch platform should be able to resolve two major cost problems that had plagued the Space Shuttle: (1) reusable parts and (2) streamlined maintenance and design.

While the Space Shuttle itself was reusable, many of its launch components—including its iconic orange liquid gas tank—were not. Meanwhile, SpaceX has already proven that it can preserve many of Crew Dragon’s launch components for subsequent launches, including its rocket engine tanks. In fact, Falcon 9’s first stage for DM-2 is expected to be recovered by SpaceX’s drone ship shortly after launch. With the shuttle’s external tank costing about $75 million alone, NASA’s per launch cost for the Space Shuttle was valued at $450 million in 2017. Since the maximum crew capability is eight, this comes out to a per seat cost of $56 million for the Space Shuttle. Meanwhile, a Falcon 9 launch costs $62 million in 2018, and is only expected to go lower as Falcon 9 becomes more efficient. In fact, according to a recent NASA’s inspector general report, SpaceX’s per seat launch cost is already lower than that of the Space Shuttle at $55 million.

Additionally, all of the components used for the Space Shuttle required sourcing from many different companies. With NASA never significantly modifying the design (why fix something when it isn’t broken), the shuttle had been practically frozen in time for three decades. Hence, it was hard for NASA to procure certain parts as time dragged on and companies went out of business. In fact, at one point, NASA even went on Yahoo and eBay to find parts for the shuttle. But in SpaceX, NASA has found a private company that can manage the supply for and construction of the launch platform. Furthermore, because SpaceX embraces the iterative design process, it’s likely that it will continue to improve its vehicle, leading to further cost reductions and performance improvements. This will likely enable the Crew Dragon to escape the financial death spiral that led to the demise of the Space Shuttle.

Extending Domestic Capabilities and Validating Private Partnerships

Not only will the Crew Dragon be critical for America to maintain its leadership position in Outer Space, it will also validate NASA’s policy of private-public partnership as an integral part of future Space-related developments.

With a new Space race heating up, America’s ability to launch all missions domestically is a critical capability for NASA. As the current pandemic has clearly demonstrated, a country that is self-reliant for its supply chain is much more adept at handling any surprises. While the world is now more interconnected than ever before, a black swan event can quickly disrupt the current world order. During these uncertain times, countries might instinctively and inevitably become more protectionistic, shutting off critical services to foreign parties. But, by having a capable domestic launch vehicle, NASA will not be held as a hostage to fickle circumstances. America’s spacefaring dreams can proceed independently even in the face of a global crisis.

However, that is not to say that NASA should not continue its international partnerships; global cooperation is of extreme importance as new technologies make the world ever smaller. With Space launches becoming less expensive and Outer Space increasingly crowded with satellites, spacecrafts, and space debris, global leadership is essential to ensure safe and equitable access. Furthermore, as Space exploration continues, we will learn that the differences among us are infinitesimal compared to the similarities that bind us.

Crew Dragon’s success will also validate NASA’s new emphasis on private-public partnerships. While cost-plus contracts will still have its place, for an initial fixed $396 million investment in SpaceX, NASA now has access to a dedicated Florida launch site for a reusable falcon 9 that can launch both crewed and cargo Dragon to the ISS. Meanwhile, the concurrent NASA-managed SLS Program, which is supposed to replace the Space Shuttle for deep Space exploration, has been mired in delays—with its first unmanned test pushed back to no earlier than 2021. For challenging and complex projects such as developing a new spacecraft, delays are inevitable but the joint partnership between SpaceX and NASA has been significantly advancing our spacefaring abilities and revolutionizing—to wit, reusability—the launch industry.

For these reasons, tomorrow, I will be tuning in attentively to the official launch. Barring no setbacks or weather delays, I can’t wait to see the Dragon’s crew soar to new heights and, in a little less than 24 hours after launch, float through the connected dock to become members of Expedition 63 on the ISS. Thus begins our rebirth and a new chapter in the America’s spacefaring dream.