2021 Potpourri Edition
James Webb Space Telescope (Courtesy of NASA)
“The Universe Always Falls in Love with a Stubborn Heart”
Well, not a lot of people expected 2021 to end up the way it did! With plenty of ups and downs, this year has been quite the slow-motion return to “normal” life. But for the Outer Space sector, this trip around the sun has been a jam packed one. So, without further ado, here is my 2021 year-end update on previous topics. Happy Holidays and here’s to normalcy in 2022!
Pentagon Getting Serious about UFOs
My most recent post laid out my belief that we are likely not alone in the Milky Way Galaxy. It looks like the Pentagon is taking this to heart. In late November, the U.S. military announced that it will be forming a new working group to investigate many unexplained sightings (UFOs) that have been reported by its personnel. Called the Airborne Object Identification and Management Synchronization Group, the new division will focus its investigation on UFO sightings occurring in restricted airspace. Of the 143 observations of these strange phenomena, 21 reports—covering 18 separate events—were of unidentified objects that seems to contain technologies of extraterrestrial origin, enabling these UFOs to traverse without any identifiable signs of propulsion. But, some critics argue that this group should not have been formed without the military first conducting more research into whether these episodes could have been explained by naturally-occurring phenomena or misinterpretations of optics and advanced sensor data. But, I, for one, hope that the new group will shed some light on these mysteries!
Women Leading the Way
This year also saw a significant first for women in Outer Space: the first female taikonaut to do a spacewalk. This achievement was foreshadowed by a cargo mission that included a spacesuit in the manifesto. In September, China sent up a 5.6 metric tons supply mission, Tianzhou-3, to its space station for future taikonaut visits. Onboard was a 90 kilogram spacesuit that is designed for spacewalks, ensuring that China had more than one spacesuit on its space station, Tianhe, that would be spacewalk-capable. This caused many to speculate whether Wang Yaping, the female member of Shenzhou-13 crew, would become the first female taikonaut to “walk” in Outer Space. In early November, they were proven right when Ms. Wang took her first steps outside of the Tianhe to install additional equipment. With this spacewalk, Yaping not only put herself in the history books but also became another amazing female model for Outer Space dreaming girls worldwide. Well done!
Bumping an Asteroid
Two years ago, I wrote about planetary defense and how we can guard against Near-Earth objects (NEO). Well, we took another big step in this field this year. Late last month, NASA launched its first ever planetary-defense related mission: it will attempt to deflect an asteroid off of its current orbit. Named DART, which stands for Double Asteroid Redirection Test, this mission will take a spacecraft—launched onboard a SpaceX rocket—to a pair of asteroids, Dimorphos and Didymos, some 7.18 million kilometers away. Scientists are interested in changing the orbital motion of this twin asteroid system. Specifically, the mission objective is for the kamikaze spacecraft to slam into Dimorphos, the smaller asteroid that is orbiting around the larger Didymos. NASA is hoping that this impact will cause enough change in speed that will alter the motion of Dimorphos. If successful, this would suggest that, with enough time and warning, we could develop techniques that could alter the path of an asteroid that is on a collision course with Earth, preventing any extinction-type events. The collision into Didymos is expected to be captured by a CubeSat named LICIACube, which has hitched a ride onboard, and should bear witness to the moment of impact.
Satellite Internet Booming
Two years ago, I also focused on a booming Outer Space market: satellite internet constellations. Since then, this field have had its fair share of updates. Last year we saw one, OneWeb, performed a Phoenix-like act by rising from the ashes of a bankruptcy. While it continued to thrive this year, it is still experiencing some hiccups; to wit, OneWeb is currently figuring out how to retrieve one of its failed satellites that is orbiting 1,200 kilometers above Earth. However, it is not the only company experiencing issues with others realizing that the industry is no cake walk. For instance, we also saw Facebook (or Meta) secretly folding from the field with Amazon absorbing the former’s satellite division into its own Project Kuiper. But as for Project Kuiper, it seems to be moving along well with Amazon expecting to launch two satellites, KuiperSat-1 and KuiperSat-2, to LEO by middle of next year. But all of these enterprises are currently trying to catch the leader, SpaceX, as Musk’s “startup” continues its torrent pace of Starlink launches. While on the “old money” side, the Boeing Company received authorization earlier this year to place 132 satellites into LEO and another 15 in other orbits around Earth. What make these satellites unique is the fact that they will be broadcasting in the V-band rather than the Ka and Ku band used by other satellite constellations. With all of these satellites getting ready to launch—applications for about 38,000 satellites are in the works—it looks like the sky above us will be filling up!
Space Debris Expanding
Speaking of satellites clogging up Earth’s various orbits, space debris is now becoming a serious issue since I first wrote about it a while back. With so many objects in the space around Earth, collision avoidance maneuvers are becoming more of a necessity. This problem is compounded by the fact that countries are deliberately blowing up their defunct satellites as a demonstration of their anti-satellite weapons. For example, in November, a Russian anti-satellite weapon demonstration necessitated International Space Station occupants to hunker down in various “lifeboats” in the event that the resulting space debris collides with the space station. This demonstration produced over 1,500 pieces of orbital debris that are now capable of traveling up to 17,500 miles per hour. At that speed, even a small piece can wreak havoc and create major safety concerns for any Outer Space activities in LEO.
Space Tourism Blasting Off
Switching to some positive news about human activities in Outer Space, this year saw space tourism both literally and symbolically taking off. Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic each had its founder launch onboard its spacecrafts for the very first time. Meanwhile on the SpaceX side, with Jared Isaacman serving as the mission commander, four individuals successfully completed the first ever all-private human spaceflight in September. Named Insipration4, this historic mission saw these four individuals orbit the Earth for 3 days in SpaceX’s crew dragon capsule. Then, earlier this month, Roscomos got back into the game by shepherding 2 Japanese space tourists onto the International Space Station via a Soyuz. While there are still some hiccups to be worked out (e.g., the dragon toilet malfunction, deviations from flight plan), each of these missions—no matter how short—represent a significant step forward for the industry.
Commercial Astronauts Wings Clipped
With more and more space tourists ready to take a journey up toward the heavens, the question of whether they can qualify as astronauts is becoming more relevant than ever. When I first wrote about this topic, I concluded that space tourists likely will not qualify as astronauts. It looks like the Federal Aviation Administration (“FAA”) agrees with this perspective. In July of this year, the agency updated its qualification requirements for commercial astronaut wings. At that time, the FAA decided that spaceflight participants will also need to have performed “activities during flight that were essential to public safety, or contributed to human space flight safety” in addition to traveling above an altitude of at least 50 statute miles. Then, earlier this month, the FAA further tightened the screw. Now, the FAA will no longer award commercial astronaut wings after this year. Instead, it will only list these individuals on a publicly accessible table. So, it looks like these wings will be a rare commodity after all!
Moon Annals
But speaking of exploration of Outer Space for the benefit of human race, I argued how establishing a permanent presence on the Moon is a necessity for humanity. While China is moving rapidly forward with its Moon missions, it looks like NASA’s return to the Moon will be delayed. In November, NASA announced that its original goal of sending astronauts back to the Moon will be pushed back from 2024. The agency contributed this delay to the pandemic, an ongoing Blue Origin lawsuit, and shifts in Artemis project goals. However, many in the space community believes that the original date was never realistic and was likely used as a campaign tool for the presidential election. In fact, NASA’s own Office of the Inspector General indicates that it is likely that NASA’s crewed return to the Moon will not happen until 2026 at the earliest.
Falcon Heavy Launching Again
Meanwhile on the commercial side, we haven’t heard much about the Falcon Heavy since its maiden voyage more than 3 years ago. Well, that’s about to change because it looks like there will be a lot of action for this rocket in 2022. With at least three Space Force missions planned for next year, the Falcon Heavy is also expected to take on a commercial mission for ViaSat and an asteroid exploration mission for NASA. Although SpaceX is devoting its research focus on the development of Starship, this suggests that Falcon Heavy should not be ignored. While this big brother to Falcon 9 won’t serve as a replacement for the SLS rocket, it will still be heavily involved in the Artemis Program as a commercial launch carrier.
Launch Providers Getting Practical
While we are on the topic of commercial launch providers, it was another banner year for players in this industry. Some significant developments include:
Astra: Earlier this year, Astra became a public company via a merger with the SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) Holicity. Then, after a near miss, Astra joined the ranks of small launch providers that have a functional rocket that is capable of reaching Outer Space. On a cold November Alaskan night, LV0007—Astra’s seventh rocket—successfully reached orbit. This is a remarkable achievement for a company that was founded just over five years ago. While the small rocket provider industry is crowded with competitors, Astra aims to become the cheapest launch provider in this sector. *Full Disclosure: I am long Astra*
Rocket Lab: Rocket Lab also officially became a public company earlier this year when it merged with the SPAC Vector Acquisition Corporation. This small launch provider has been experiencing tremendous success this year. With its Electron rocket becoming reliable and dependable, Rocket Lab is working on the next phase in which it will try and recover an Electron rocket after launch in midair with a helicopter. The company is also seeking to challenge SpaceX by introducing a medium-size reusable rocket called Neutron. With these positive developments, the future is looking bright for its stock with several analysts reiterating a “buy” rating. *Full Disclosure: I am long Rocket Lab*
SpaceX: SpaceX seems to be having a great year so far with many successful launches for a variety of purposes. These include manned missions to the International Space Station, space tourism via Inspiration 4, different payload launches for both government and commercial entities. However, news broke toward the end of the year that engine development for its flagship vehicle, the Starship, is not going well. Elon Musk went as far as warning SpaceX employees that the company faces a genuine risk of bankruptcy if the timeline for the Raptor engines development do not get back on track. With the flight cadence of Starship being materially impacted, this would lead to profitability concerns for SpaceX. Whether this is a scare tactic or a genuine observation remains to be seen!
Virgin Orbit: Sir Richard Branson’s other space company that is focused more on payload launches is also finding success in the sky as well. With two successful launches under its belt, Virgin Orbit will be attempting one more mission by the end of the year. The company also has big plans for the future after signing a non-binding agreement with All Nippon Airways to facilitate the launch of Virgin Orbit’s 747 aircraft from a preexisting runway in an airport located in Japan’s Oita Prefecture. Virgin Orbit is also in the SPAC space as well, looking to become a public company via the merger with NextGen Acquisition II Corporation. However, at least one user on twitter is throwing some cold water on its profitability metrics.
In the Public Eye
Speaking of SPACs, 2021 saw many rocket companies go public. While some, like Rocket Lab and Astra, have found success, others have hit rough patches. For instance, Momentus Space and the SPAC it was supposed to merge into, Stable Road Acquisition Corp, both got charged by the Securities and Exchange Commission for deceiving investors. Redwire Space, a space infrastructure company, also found itself managing a crisis of investors’ confidence when it decided to delay its quarterly filing after being notified of an accounting issue. While I am currently long Redwire, it looks like this space is not for the faint of heart.
Traffic In the Sky
With so many commercial launch providers emerging, Earth’s airspace is getting more and more congested. Between airplane operations and launch activities, an emerging traffic jam is forming in the sky above. With the rise of reusable rockets, not only will the airways need to be cleared for launch, but it must also stay closed until a rocket completes its landing operations as well. Aware of the traffic jam, the Federal Aviation Administration has implemented a new system that seeks to reduce the delay time experienced by airlines while they wait for the airspace to reopen. Called the Space Data Integrator, the system relies on data transmitted by commercial launch operators so that FAA can optimize the amount of time and the size of the airspace that needs to be restricted for an Outer Space launch. This optimization will hopefully lead the FAA to re-route fewer flights, leading to less delay time.
New Lens for the Universe
Last but not least, after more 20 years of planning and development, NASA’s latest space telescope, James Webb, is set to be launched on top of an Ariane 5 rocket in late December (currently Dec. 24 at 4:20 am PT) from French Guinea. The space telescope will operate at one of the more prominent locations near Earth: L2 Lagrange point. As explained in my post, this location is unique because it is one of the five Outer Space spots where the convergence of various forces would enable objects here to stay stationary relative to Earth as both rotate around the sun. This would simplify the transmission process between the James Webb telescope and its receiver on Earth. With mirrors much larger in diameter than those of its predecessor Hubble space telescope, the successor James Webb will be 100 times more powerful. With these giant mirrors, the new space telescope will enable us to look deeper into the universe. This will provide scientists with a snapshot that is further back in time with the telescope enabling us to collect more light than ever before.
